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Carlisle
| Going: Good (Good to Soft in places) |
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Timeform guide: Juddmonte International
Timeform's David Cleary previews the Group 1 Juddmonte International at York Racecourse on Wednesday.
It may be the most recently instituted of Britain's open middle-distance Group 1 races, but the Juddmonte International, which began life as the Benson & Hedges Gold Cup in 1972, has become as significant a race as there is in the calendar. The race made an immediate impact, the Derby winner Roberto inflicting the only defeat of his career on the legendary Brigadier Gerard.
Many great names have followed – Dahlia, Troy, Triptych, Halling, Singspiel, Giant's Causeway. In the twenty-first century, the race has been the stage for some of the greatest performances in the sport. The three best European-trained mile/middle distance horses of the century are on the roll of honour, headed by Frankel's win in 2012, the best performance by a Flat racehorse in Timeform's long history.
Best winning performances on Timeform ratings since 2001:
147 Frankel
137 Baaeed
136 Sakhee
133 Authorised, Ghaiyyath
131 Australia, Sea The Stars
130 City of Troy, Postponed, Roaring Lion, Ulysses
Those top 11 performances from the winners split fairly evenly between three year olds and older runners, six-five in favour of the four-and-over brigade. However, over the first quarter of this century, there are only two other three-year-old winners, Japan, who edged out the short-priced favourite Crystal Ocean in 2019, and the 50/1-chance Arabian Queen who turned over the Derby winner Golden Horn in 2015.
Tactics
It's worth starting with last year's International, given that was won by Ombudsman, with the Ballydoyle contender Delacroix in second, the pair dominating the market. Delacroix had beaten Ombudsman in the Eclipse at the start of the previous month. In a tactical race at Sandown, Delacroix prevailed despite finding trouble in running and allowing Ombudsman first run.
Ombudsman's connections decided he would benefit from a pacemaker, so the Andre Fabre-trained Birr Castle was engaged. In what threatened to be a repeat of the Sussex Stakes, where a Juddmonte pacemaker came home a surprise winner, Birr Castle went 20 lengths clear and wasn't headed until inside the final furlong.
In terms of usefulness, Birr Castle served little purpose, though that Ombudsman turned the tables on Delacroix meant the ends justified the means.
Ombudsman and Delacroix met again in the Champion Stakes, in which both had a pacemaker. Calandagan got the better of both, with Ombudsman second and Delacroix only fourth. Ombudsman's pacemaker on that occasion was Devil's Advocate, who filled the same role in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot, when Ombudsman produced the best performance of his career. Devil's Advocate is set to be deployed as pacemaker again.
Ballydoyle will also likely have at least one pacemaker for its leading hope, the three-year-old Constitution River. Action has been reduced to the role for others since he finished runner-up to Item in the Dante. Hawk Mountain, who finished placed behind Constitution River in the Jockey Club and Eclipse, may be running in his own right, though he tends to race prominently and could well help maintain the gallop.
Trip/Ground/Draw
Ombudsman, Constitution River and Item have all shown their best form around a mile and a quarter and on good/good to firm going. These are also optimum conditions for Almaqam. Hawk Mountain has shown himself effective on good/good to firm this year, though he's one that wouldn't be troubled in the very unlikely event of softer going.
The unknown quantity with regard to the going is Zaydann, who will likely be encountering easily the firmest ground he's faced.
The draw is unlikely to have any great impact on the outcome.
Pedigree
It is significant that Zaydann has been allowed to take his chance. He has so far raced at no higher than Group 3 level. However, on pedigree there is an expectation that he can make an impact in a significantly higher grade.
Zaydann a son of Dubawi, out of Zaykava, who won a listed race in France over a mile and a quarter. Zaykava is a half-sister to several useful-or-better performers, notably the Jockey Club second and Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud winner Zarak, himself, like Zaydann, a son of Dubawi.
Another half-sister, the lightly-raced Zarkamiya also won a listed race and was placed in the Vermeille. Zarkamiya is the dam of the Pouliches winner Zarigana, who is by Zaykava's sire Siyouni.
Zarydann's grandam is the outstanding Zarkava, who was unbeaten in seven starts, including the Pouliches, Diane and Arc. In short, the 'Z' family has been knocking it out of the park in recent years, so Zaydann clearly shouldn't be ignored as he takes his chance.
Form
What makes the Juddmonte International such a perfectly pitched race is the way in which it serves different constituencies. With Frankel and Baaeed it was ideally timed for a horse that had nothing left to prove at a mile, after the Sussex, to step up in trip. For a Derby winner, it offers a great opportunity to add a more commercial Group 1 win to the CV.
It is also a race run on one of the fairest tracks in the country. Unlike Sandown, Goodwood or Ascot, there is no bunching near the rail and having to pray for a gap. The field nearly always swings to the centre and there's plenty of space in a likely single-figure field to make a move.
Ombudsman last year came here after defeat in the Eclipse. This time round he skipped that race, coming here off a two-month break following a second successive victory in the Prince of Wales's Stakes. That was the route taken by the 2023 winner Mostahdaf.
Constitution River is following a similar route to the 2024 winner, his stable's Derby winner City of Troy. After an impressive victory at Epsom, City of Troy had won the Eclipse before coming to York. Constitution River has also won a classic – the Jockey Club – before landing the Eclipse.
The last runner gaining a first Group 1 win in the International was Roaring Lion in 2018. He had won the Dante and then not quite got home when third in the Derby. He'd also been narrowly beaten by Saxon Warrior in what was then the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster as a two year old.
Arabian Queen was also making a breakthrough at Group 1 level when she won in 2015, though it was her fourth successive run at the level and her performance rates by several lbs the lowest by a winner in the last 25 years.
It's fair to say that nearly all the winners of the International this century were horses already established at the highest level, with at least a win or two at Group 1 in the bag. Perhaps the nearest to Zaydann and Item in terms of their form coming into the race is Electrocutionist. He was having his first run outside Italy when he won the 2005 running in a thrilling finish from the Japanese-trained Zenno Rob Roy, a race in which the first four were covered by under a length.
Electrocutionist has won the Gran Premio di Milano, which was then a Group 1, on his previous start, though the improvement he showed at York is the sort of step forward Zaydann would need to make.
Paddock
Constitution River and Item are both quality three year olds to look at. Item is tall and well made, very much a son of Frankel, his physique promising continued progress for the rest of this year and beyond.
Case for the Contenders
Ombudsman: the clear form pick; very consistent and better than ever on his most recent start; won the race last year, has optimum conditions and a pacemaker to ensure a suitable gallop.
Constitution River: unbeaten this year; produced one of the best Derby trial performances this century in the Dee Stakes, overcame adversity to win the Jockey Club and then landed the Eclipse in style; definitely has more to offer; another with conditions likely to be ideal.
Almaqam: has a Group 1 win this year – in the Tattersalls Gold Cup – and a defeat of Ombudsman – in last year's Brigadier Gerard – to his name; the defeat of the subsequent Coronation Cup winner Bay City Roller at the Curragh was a career-best, but he was below that level behind Ombudsman at Ascot next time and has a bit to find on balance of form.
Item: floundered on soft ground in the Derby but bounced back to win at Group 3 level here last month; had won the Dante here on his reappearance as well; has a bit to find on form, but the best is surely yet to come.
Zaydann: a superbly bred colt from the Aga Khan's studs; takes a big step up in class, but obviously interesting that his connections see fit to throw him into something like this; ground is an unknown.
Pride of Arras: really ought not to be near good enough, but he's run his three best races at York, winning the Dante and Great Voltigeur last year and chasing home Item last time out, so likely to be seen at his best.
Hawk Mountain: has been placed behind Constitution River on his last two starts, efforts that would be good enough to see him make the frame, though he might be used more as a pacemaker and would likely need to improve at least 5 or 6 lb to actually win.
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